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Executive Summary
- 01Consumer discussions around recent 22% shrinkflation & price adjustments surged 310% over the last 10 days.
- 0273% of complaints in Northern urban corridors (Kano, Kaduna) express substitution intent toward local unbranded alternatives.
- 035 key consumer advocacy and comedy creators generated 42% of organic social reach discussing pack-size dissatisfaction.
Customer complaints regarding pack size vs. price velocity accelerated +31% week-over-week.
“The price went up but the sachet volume was cut in half — no longer value for money.”
Negative volume is projected to keep rising over the next 30 days before plateauing, with peak complaint intensity expected in Northern urban corridors. Early-mover value-tier positioning will decide who captures the substitution share.
Pause planned Q3 price revision in Northern trade channels; launch 'Family Value Pack' messaging highlighting nutrient density before competitor B captures value-tier shelf space.